By: Prof. Khurshid Ahmed
Naib Ameer, Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan

"To forewarn is to forearm" is a famous English saying. And with this spirit and sentiment, we want to forewarn the Pakistani nation and Muslim Community (Ummah) about the plans and conspiracies that are being hatched in the West in general and the United States and India in particular, and which cannot be dismissed by being declared as mere figment of imagination.

As far as Islam and Muslims are concerned, there is no doubt that a war between the right and the wrong, and a struggle between Adam and Devil is continuing since the Day of Genesis and would continue till the Day of Judgment.

This struggle is neither unexpected nor anything new! The Muslim Ummah, however, ignored ground realities because of its slumber or illusion, and suffered. We are faced with the like situation these days as well and are astonished and puzzled that while the clouds of danger and destruction are hovering over the sea and the land, a specific clique is hostage of "all is well" syndrome, on the one hand, and, on the other, is begging for friendship and peace and security from the enemy. Such has been the behavior of the depraved and self-seeking leaderships, and such it is in this day and age. But, Pakistan, abode of Muslims, is a country of 140 million people. It is their last refuge, and its protection is essentially their responsibility, as its coming into existence had become possible because of their sacrifices. These people, the real asset of Ummah and protectors of Pakistan, are our addressee.

However perilous and intricate the dangers and conspiracies might be, this country that came into being in the name of Islam shall, God willing, survive them and play its historic role. But this is also Allah’s rule that the nation shall have to rise to this and rid itself of the leaderships that look towards Washington and Delhi instead of having faith and trust in Allah, that are ignorant of their history, traditions, and national sentiments, and to whom temporary benefits and worldly comforts have become the objectives of life. There is only one way for Pakistan’s life, survival, and progress: trust in and reliance on Allah and peoples’ waking up, so that the reign could come in the hands of the real representatives and well-wishers of people and Ummah instead of being with opportunist cheats, so that the people could commit themselves to the duty of working for their future.

The establishment of Pakistan in 1947 (the biggest Muslim country at the time with respect to the population) was not merely the emergence of a Muslim country on the global political horizon, but a starting point for the independence of Muslim countries and global movement for Islamic revival. In a short span of time, 56 Muslim countries emerged on the world map and witnessed the struggle for establishing Islamic order and enforcing the Shariah. Islamic revolution in Iran ((1979), Soviet retreat from Afghanistan (1988-90) and disintegration of the global socialist movement and of the Soviet Union were fateful events. Scared, the Islam-hostile forces rang alarm bells and started a multi-faceted war against the Ummah to check the growth of Islamic revival.

Politics, economy, finance, culture, education, population control, media… in every field, in short, a deliberate war was let loose so that the Muslim world could not play its global role and rather may become entangled in the new snare of colonialism. This war has many fronts and the strategy has many targets, eg changing the political map, recapturing natural and material resources, financial chaos and debt-slavery, unrest fuelled by regional, ethnic, clan, and sectarian prejudices, mutual confrontation and infighting, economic lash, domination of thought and education, opening of floodgates of pastime fun and frolicking in the name of art and culture, and weakening of military strength, etc. Whether it is the Iran-Iraq war or the Gulf war; destruction of Bosnia, Kosova, Chechnya, and Tajikistan or infighting in Afghanistan; political game in Oslo and Madrid or Dayton Agreement; Geneva Accord or Lahore and Washington Declarations; Algerian blood-bath or genocide in Somalia; division of Iraq or Kurd uprising in Iraq and Turkey; Islam-phobia in the Western nations or the state-terrorism on Muslims under the excuse of suppressing extremism…all are but different aspects and fronts of the same war.

The most worrisome is that leaderships of the very Muslim and Arab countries are allies and accomplices of the Western nations. A network of common interest has been established between them, and they are indulged in the loot and plunder of their own home by playing in the hands of the enemy. The major targets of the onslaught against the Muslim world are:

1. To make Islam controversial by creating confusion of thought and intellect. Fundamentalism, extremism, deprivation from rights, tension between man and woman, and disintegration of the family system… imposition of so-called liberalism and secularism on Muslims in the name of freedom, progress, equality, modernity, and prosperity.
2. To inflame regional, ethnic, clan, and sectarian differences for tearing into pieces the ideological, constitutional, and moral unity of Ummah and for keeping the Muslim countries from embracing Islam and Islamic unity; and to make the unrest take the route of violence.
3. To put those Muslim countries where there are greater chances of Islamic revival, or which could become a means for the unity of Muslim world, to the throes of political disorder; and thus to plan their division, as the Ottoman Caliphate was annihilated in the beginning of the 20^th century and the world map was designed to keep the Muslims weak and divided (See, Sykes-Picot Agreement 1916-1922, Balfour Declaration 1917, Treaty of Versailles 1919)
   Conspiracies to change the present map once again are being speedily implemented, and the main targets are Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia, Central Asia, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. At an age when Europe is going for unity, America is trying to take the countries of both North and South into the folds of economic and political embrace, and Russia is once again busy in taking in a new system those countries of Europe and Asia that were part of its old system, all efforts are to ensure that the Muslim world remains disunited and dissipated, and that its all potentials are spoiled by internal chaos.
4. To dominate financial resources of the Muslim world and to make it a colony of America and Europe in the name of globalization.
5. To keep the Muslim world militarily weak, to give it, on the one hand, obsolete arms just for commercial profits, and on the other, to destroy whatever military strength is there in the Muslim world through internal conflicts. Moreover, to ensure that these countries remain deprived of high technology and since Pakistan has acquired nuclear capability, the effort is to destroy this capability to block this way for Muslim countries.
6. Control of information, in addition to the complete domination of economic and financial resources of the world. Moreover, using the power of media, coloring all in the Western colors in the fields of knowledge and art, and culture and civilization; diverting the Muslim nations from martial arts, hardwork, and research and investigation to dancing and singing, pastime fun and frolicking, licentiousness, and sexual waywardness so that their ability to fight is weakened and neutralized, Western colonialism is perpetuated, and America continues to enjoy domination as the superpower of the 21^st century.

This is the outline of the war America and European nations are acting upon. They have taken Israel and India as their allies in this war, and the two also have assumed important role according to their respective goals.

In this background, the need is to ponder upon those research reports, studies, political analyses, and futuristic outlines that have flooded the political circles of America and Europe. These writings are reflective of the mentality and designs of the Western nations. These apparently seem to be a mixture of truth and falsehood, facts and illusions, analysis and imagination, expectations and worries. This may be the expression of their hidden malignity, but study and analysis is necessary despite all this so as to understand the plans of the enemy forces, to asses our own weaknesses and defects and thus to rectify them, and to prepare and plan for answering the machinations of the enemy.

Former American President Richard Nixon by writing about the dangers of Islamic extremism in the Foreign Affairs journal on the eve of Reagan-Gorbachev first summit meeting in 1985, and NATO’s secretary-general by identifying in 1985 the green-threat in place of the red-threat had kicked off this continued discussion. Then, in 1994 Prof. Samuel Huntington drew new lines and characters first in the Foreign Affairs and then in a book on clash of civilizations. This issue is continuing with full intensity. Not a single month lapses in which some important articles and books are not published on this favorite subject. Pakistan has been a special subject in this connection for the last few months, and this is quite suggestive.

The Pentagon, White House, the Congress and various committees of the Senate are quite active on the issue. Some of the points highlighted by a 28-member committee, which worked under former Senators Garry Hart and Ren Rodman, are:

• The situation in Afghanistan can be dangerous for Pakistan’s security.
• Coming 25 years are very dangerous for Pakistan. The process of disintegration in Pakistan would take place during this period, this can become the hottest issue in the world calling for immediate attention.
• There are chances of war between the Taliban, India, Iran, and China.
• Pakistan and India would fight a war on Kashmir issue.
• There would be bad-blood in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. Baloch, Pashtun, and Muhajir would demand separate states and this would affect Pakistan’s internal security.
• Pakistan would become financially weak and politically paralyzed.

This report was prepared in 1999 and is being discussed at the policy-making circles since the beginning of this year.

The Pentagon has got prepared another 147-page report titled ‘Asia 2025’. This has come to fore only recently. Its contents have been revealed by one of its members, Ashley Tebis, who is associated with the RAND corporation, and which has been published in the Indian journal Outlook (Sept. 18, 2000). It presents three scenarios in which, God forbid, Pakistan’s disintegration, defeat and merger with India; destruction of Indonesia and the establishment of the domination of China and India in Asia; and China’s success in East Asia and recovery of Taiwan, are central topics. Some important passages about Pakistan:

The "New South Asian Order" scenario begins unfolding in the year 2010 with the imminent collapse of Pakistan, where ongoing economic crises, ethnic conflicts and the government’s helplessness on the law and order front renders it increasingly unstable.

Sindhis, Baluch and Pathans, who have long resented a Punjabi-dominated Pakistan, rebel. Mohajirs take to the streets. Islamic extremism adds to the instability in two forms - Taliban’s destabilization efforts and the growing power of the Jamaat-e-Islami party.

By 2012, the Pakistani state is totally paralyzed and loses control to Islamic extremists who infiltrate Kashmir. "India demands that Pakistan end the Islamic incursions. When Pakistan fails to respond, India moves into Azad Kashmir. Pakistan issues a nuclear ultimatum for Indian withdrawal from Azad Kashmir… Fearing that Pakistan would use its nuclear weapons, India launches an unsuccessful conventional strike on the former’s nuclear capabilities. Next, Pakistan launches nuclear strikes against Indian forces along their common border, driven by a "use it or lose it" rationale.

The US intelligence shows that Islamists in Pakistan are seizing the remaining Pakistani nuclear weapons. This goads the US to launch a conventional strike on Pakistan’s nuclear sites.

Total anarchy prevails in Pakistan. The Indian army moves in to restore order. As the country disintegrates, Pakistan’s regions accede incrementally to India. The Sindhi, Baluch, and North West Frontier Province parliaments vote to join an Indian-led confederation. An Indian Confederation emerges. Isolated Punjab is compelled to join the confederation and merges with its Indian counterpart to form a greater Punjab province within the confederation.

The study says that Pakistan disappears by 2020, and the Indian Confederation emerges as a regional superstate… It sees India becoming a "regional hegemon", and US planners are now urging the US defense department to anticipate a heightened Indian economic and strategic role in the region.

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On the lines of this report is the latest book of BBC correspondent Humphrey Hawksley which Macmillan has published on August 24, 2000. This is titled ‘Dragonfire’. Apparently it is a novel that gives a view of the war in future. But it is neither a novel, nor a reportage, rather a report from the battlefields of the capitals of Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Japan, and America in May 2007 that has been presented in the form of news-reporting of BBC and CNN, and about which the writer has said that it is ‘future history’. He writes:

Developments in Asia are moving so fast that on several occasions my writing was overtaken by events. What was fiction one day became historical fact the next.

What is interesting is that the writer has researched for three years for the book and the people he has interviewed include prominent figures from America, India, and Pakistan: Ashley Tebis from America, India-born Prof. Rajan Menin of Lehyh University, and Khaled Ahmed, editor of Friday Times, General (retd.) Mirza Aslam Beg, and Dr. Tanvir Ahmad Khan from Pakistan.

The central theme of the book is leadership vacuum in Asia due to America’s more interest in its own affairs, and the role of India and China in filling it. Though India too is badly injured in this regional war and conflict, it, however, survives and becomes a regional power. The real loss is of Pakistan that, God forbid, is wiped out from the map, and China’s domination in the region is established. The reason of war is Islamic forces’ meddling in Kashmir where religious parties’ role, and particularly of Jamaat-e-Islami, is highlighted. Collaboration and cooperation between the military and the Islamic forces is held responsible for the situation. The real targets are army and Islam. The scenario in May 2007 has thus been presented:

Forever feeling threatened by India and ruled by dishonest leaders from within, Pakistan has not yet developed into the Islamic success envisioned by its founders. It was getting poorer and more violent. At the turn of the century it had recently proclaimed itself a nuclear power and a military government had been installed. Under constant international pressure, Pakistan embarked upon another experiment with democracy, but it failed to pull the country out of its morass. Once again, the army and Islam emerged as attractive alternatives. (p.42)

The summary of the whole story is that the war started in Kashmir, India brought in its army, tried to destroy Kahuta, but the attempt was failed, Pakistan launched a nuclear attack on the Indian armies, America intervened and destroyed Kahuta. China attacked India and caused great destruction. Pakistan, its army, nuclear power were completely destroyed. Despite the destruction of Bombay, Indian armies occupied Pakistan and two nuclear powers were recognized in Asia: China and India.

Jamaat-e-Islami, Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen are mentioned repeatedly. Even Zia-ul-Haq is not spared. A scare of Shariah-domination has been created. Jihadi forces’ activities in Xinjiang have been discussed, to inflame misgivings between Pakistan and China. The book highlights Indian war preparations and superiority of its strategy. The leadership of Pakistan army is depicted as emotional, and naïve in planning, while Indian commanders are shown informed about the situation and equipped with information about every inch of Pakistan’s land. The real target is that America ultimately attacks with B-2 and deprives Pakistan of its nuclear capability.

In the epilogue, China’s victory, India’s reconstruction all anew, and Pakistan’s being given in the United Nation’s trusteeship is predicted. According to the author, merger with India was also possible, but given the strong opposition from the people of Pakistan and the regard for Muslim world’s sentiments, the country was given to the control of the UN forces. Delhi and Bombay were destroyed in India, but their reconstruction began after the new elections; and the Stock Exchange was shifted to Madras.

Indian defense minister George Fernandes has described the novel ‘Dragonfire’ as realistic. (The Asian Age, London, Sept. 1, 2000)

Call it a novel, a fantasy, or a wish-fulfillment, the fact is that the real target of the West is to destroy the nuclear capability of Pakistan, to weaken the strength of Islam, and to make the army helpless. If the Pakistani nation and Muslim Ummah does not understand the game and its targets, the enemy would be successful. And if we, after seeing the real picture of the designs of the enemy, adopt the same prescription ie attaining power and its timely and bold use, then future would be ours.

Robert Kaplan’s detailed essay appeared in the September issue of the Atlantic Monthly that analyses the possibilities of Pakistan’s disintegration like Yugoslavia under the headlines of Balochistan, Taliban, North Western Province, Karachi, General Musharraf and Attock Fort. The specter of Jamaat-e-Islami, religious forces, and Osama bin Laden is central, here as well. In spite of all his liberalism, General Musharraf has been shown as hostage to these forces. The picture of regional and ethnic forces’ alignment against the Punjab has been portrayed, and the Indus River has been depicted as creating not only the geography of the region but the political map and, in pure imagination, India has been shown as ruler to its shores while cautioning that "don’t expect Pakistan to pass quietly from history"

Though this is continuing in papers and journals, the aim is not to analyze all of them but to understand from these few writings the plans and conspiracies that are being hatched to wipe Pakistan out from the political map.

We are sure that contrary to the conspiracies and efforts of the enemies and ill-wishers, Pakistan would last, God willing, and this nation would take to its destination.

But this cannot be achieved merely by wishing. The foremost is the need to know fully the dangers and to come up with appropriate strategy and effective measures to face them. This necessitates that we identify our destination and targets, on the one hand, and distinguish between the real friend and the enemy, on the other, so that we can deal with all enemies, be they in the open or are hidden.

The first thing to realize is that whatever conspiracies the enemy is hatching and snares it is weaving, the main reason is our own weakness and disloyalty and self-serving attitude of national leaderships. During the major part of Pakistan’s history, the ruling big parties only plundered the country and made it dissipated economically, politically, morally, culturally, and educationally, in short, in every respect and touch the limits of corruption and mismanagement. The nuclear capability and the resistance movement in Kashmir, however, are like the light at the end of the tunnel. No doubt that Pakistan’s economy is facing a crisis these days because of our own mistakes, but with respect to the economic potential and resources Pakistan possesses a viable and flourishing economy. Neither scarcity of resources is our problem, nor is lack of possibilities… The real issue of wrong leadership and the wrong policies because of which the country’s rule is with such a clique that has neither Allah’s fear nor the sense of public answerability, that has used political and financial resources for personal aggrandizement and the clique’s interests, and has been indulged in heinous attempts of destroying state institutions and concentration of powers. Public accountability and a faithful and capable leadership from among the masses are the biggest need of the time. And only the Islamic forces in the country can provide this leadership. It is their responsibility to rise above party and sectarian levels, take the entire nation into confidence, and take all its good elements along. Call the nation to its real mission and also provide leadership for the realization of this mission. Foreign powers cannot harm us, provided we are awake and have committed our energies for the achievement of our objectives.

The circumstances and dangers Pakistan is in call for adopting a national agenda. The salient features of this agenda are:

1. Islam, Pakistan’s Foundation: Pakistan is an ideological country. Islam is its foundation, its nation’s destination and the secret of its strength. Islam is the name of complete loyalty with Allah and His Prophet (pbuh). Islam gives us a complete system of Allah’s rights and the rights of His people and establishes the entire human life on God-worship, good manners, service of humanity, and equality and justice so that Muslims may become blessings for themselves and for the entire humanity. This is our destination, and the slightest deviation from this would entail Pakistan’s weakness and disloyalty with Allah. This is the first basis where no compromise or weakness is tolerable.
2. Flourishing Democratic Order. Pakistan is not the property of any individual, group, or clique. This country came into being as a result of a public and democratic movement of the people of the subcontinent, and they are the real owners and protectors of the country. The secret of our progress lies in the people’s independence, protection of their rights, and guaranteeing their right to make and run the political system. The 1973 Constitution is based on these foundations ie Islam, democracy, and federation. Nobody has the right to change this. Only the sincere and honest implementation of these principles can pave way for establishing a healthy democratic order in the country. Accountability and elections both are essential for this to achieve, and both should be held according to their respective principles; any kind of dictatorship, be it military or civil, can only aggravate the situation, not reform it.
3. Independent foreign policy: Pakistan’s independence and security depend on adopting the course of self-reliance. Friendship and cooperation with all countries of the world in general and the Muslim countries in particular is our stand, but our foreign policy and economic policies have become dependent on America. This has only deceived us and inflicted us with pains. The sooner we come out of this snare the better. For us is needed a completely independent foreign policy and such an economic policy that can protect Pakistan’s interests and guarantee our positive role in the region.
4. Economic justice and prosperity: The complete re-formulation of economic policy is a must for the country’s security and people’s requirements. The need is to take the economy out of the snare of transnational financial institutions and global colonialism, and to establish with the cooperation and collaboration of the state and the market such a system that protects national interests, and guarantees country’s progress, economic justice and prosperity. Development of agriculture, savings and investment, cooperation of the employer and the employee, elimination of poverty, and priority provision of commodities and services of public demand, should be the targets of the new economic policy. The economic progress should center round Pakistan and the needs of its people, not the World Bank or World Trade Organization expediencies.
5. Protection of nuclear capability: Protection of Pakistan’s nuclear capability and the demands of the country’s defense and security cannot be compromised. The target of Pakistan-hostile forces is before us quite clearly. This is now our duty to frustrate their conspiracies and acquire such a multi-dimensional military, economic, political, and moral strength to ward off every threat and deter the enemy from committing aggression.
6. Kashmir, the survival of Pakistan: The issue of Kashmir is not on gaining a piece of land, or of interests of two countries, but is the unfinished agenda of the subcontinent’s partition and establishment of Pakistan. This is the issue of 12.5 million people and their right to self-determination. Those who are talking ‘Kashmir or Pakistan’ are neither aware of the importance of Kashmir nor do seem knowing the reality of Pakistan. The freedom movement in Kashmir is, in fact, a war for Pakistan’s protection and survival. Theirs is not an ‘either / or’ relationship. Kashmir issue is not a border dispute between India and Pakistan. Its only solution lies in giving the people of Jammu & Kashmir their right to self-determination through the UN resolutions, and until this end is achieved, full support and help of the Kashmiri resistance movement is the duty not only of Pakistan but of the whole Ummah. Kashmiri people’s jihad against Indian domination and illegitimate occupation presents the only way for getting rid from India’s slavery.

Developing single-mindedness on this national agenda and to give reins to the new people’s leaderships for policy-making and taking practical steps according to it provides for the solution of problems. Our trust is in Allah, and the promises of His help and support. And we want to wake up the nation and see it struggling for the realization of its destination. Dynamic nations neither rely on others, nor get affected by their taunts and conspiracies. The secret of Muslims’ strength lies in faith in Allah and perseverance on the right path.

"Your (real) friends are Allah, His Prophet, and the (fellowship of) Believers – those who establish regular prayers and regular charity, and bow down humbly (in worship). As to those who turn to Allah, His Prophet and the (fellowship of) Believers – it is the Fellowship of Allah that must certainly triumph." (al-Ma’idah 5: 55-56)

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This is an English version of the Urdu article written by Prof. Khurshid Ahmad, published in the monthly Tarjuman al-Quran of October 2000.